Conway, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

962
FXUS62 KILM 282346
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
646 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the coast by Sunday as a cold front
approaches, creating a brief warming trend for the area. Rain
chances increase into next week as a wave of low pressure moves
up the Southeast coast, potentially bringing some good rain
Tuesday. A dry period is expected behind this disturbance.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The entire period is mainly just a temperature forecast, and a cold
one at that. High pressure overnight will progress east and find a
center over WV. For idealized radiational cooling I`d like to see
that center be a bit closer but forecast soundings do show a good
enough signal for rad cooling (deep surface-based inversion) to go
with some of the chillier blended guidance. A few record lows
could be challenged at the area plunges into the 20s. Interestingly
at ILM the MAV guidance of 24 (tying the record) is colder than most
of the blended guidance. With a light N breeze some of the pocosin
area cold air may drain this far south. For Saturday the high will
still be translating eastward but at a slower pace keeping our wind
light and out of the NE. This will keep mixing pretty shallow, less
than 3kft for another afternoon where highs fail to exceed 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure starts to push offshore of the mid-Atlantic and New
England states, while southwesterly flow increases aloft. This
period starts chilly, with lows Saturday night drop to near or just
below freezing inland, mid-to-upper 30s at the coast. But the
southwesterly flow quickly changes the tone, as highs quickly shoot
up into the 60s Sunday afternoon (some may even have a shot at 70
degrees). Moisture on the rise ahead of a cold front that will push
through the area Sunday night. This moisture increase will manifest
in cloud cover at first, transitioning to a slight chance of showers
late Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Lows Sunday night
range from the mid-to-upper 30s inland to the mid 40s at the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast looks to dry out a bit Monday, with the aforementioned
front stalled offshore. Chilly air comes back into play, with highs
in the low-to-mid 50s.

All eyes on Tuesday`s system, which still looks like it could bring
the best dose of rain we`ve seen in awhile. A surface low will
emerge out of the Gulf and soar through Georgia and the Carolinas,
aided by plenty of shortwave energy aloft. Guidance seems to
slightly favor a coastal track as opposed to an inland track, but
the trends still don`t look that convincing. An even bigger forecast
problem right now is the speed of the low, where model data is
spread out all over the place (it actually looks a bit worse than
yesterday). All of these details still a play a major role in
determining temperature, rainfall amounts, instability, and more.
Need to wait to have more forecast certainty before we can talk
specifics.

Looks like the low exits off to the northeast by Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning, which brings in high pressure that dries out the
area Wednesday and Thursday. More unsettled weather may arrive by
Friday. Temperatures remain below normal across the board.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail. Light NNW winds will decouple
overnight, while high pressure shifts east. Winds will veer to
the NE Saturday but remain light. Not much in the way of any
clouds other than some cirrus moving in from the west.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR until early next week. Flight
restrictions possible the first part of the upcoming week as a
coastal trough/warm front lifts north across the area, followed
by a cold frontal passage. Widespread showers and isolated
tstms are expected with this system.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...High pressure moves east tonight becoming
centered over WV. This will slightly veer the NW flow to N in
the 10-15kt range with a few gusts to 20. The high moves east
again Saturday but at a slower clip making for an additional and
gradual veer to NE. The 4 second wind chop will dominate the
weak SE swell.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Northeasterly winds drop below 10
kts and gradually veer to the south throughout the day Sunday ahead
of a cold front, with seas holding steady at 1-2 ft. Front moves
through Sunday night before stalling offshore of the coastal waters
by Monday. Winds veer back to the northeast by Monday, and the
pressure gradient quickly increases, with gusts up to 20 kts by the
afternoon, and seas up to 2-4 ft. Strong low pressure system ejects
out of the Gulf and moves through Georgia and the Carolinas Tuesday,
veering the winds again to the SSW. Winds and seas easily push into
Small Craft Advisory criteria. Depending on the track of the low,
the forecast may trend towards gale force gusts, but that remains to
be seen. Low exits the area Tuesday night, and winds veer to the NNE
and fall to 10-15 kts throughout the day Wednesday. Seas come back
down to 2-4 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...CRM/MBB
MARINE...MBB/IGB