Conway, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

907
FXUS62 KILM 100639
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
239 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers increase on Sunday as a coastal trough moves inland.
Showers and unsettled weather continue through Monday. More
typical summertime weather should return into early next week.
Temperatures below to near normal will warmup into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Coastal trough near the SC coastline will be the main feature of
today`s and tonight`s forecast. Coastal trough slowly moving
westward combined with PWATs over 2" (near 2.3" along the coast will
produce scattered showers for most of today and tonight, focused
along the coast this morning before spreading inland by this
afternoon. Not expecting a washout, and most areas will likely have
more dry time than not, but there is potential for training showers
with moderate to heavy rainfall and isolated flooding is possible.
Greatest risk of flooding will be Georgetown county, where a Flood
Watch is currently in effect, and the Grand Strand, particularly
through this morning but showers later will add on. Thunder chances
overall look quite low due to cloudy skies due to trough and
lingering wedge inland that looks to finally start breaking down
later today. Highs today in the low 80s due to clouds and showers,
with lows tonight in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Although high pressure to the north becomes more spread out
from west to east to our north it will continue to ridge into
the Carolinas as a trough remains quite prominent along the
coast from the south. In the mid to upper levels, H5 low will
track farther off the New England coast as ridge builds in from
the east. Lingering shortwave energy along the coast on Mon will
finally shift eastward Mon night into Tues as H5 trough axis
shifts eastward with best forcing to the east by Tues. Mid to
upper ridge begins to build up from the south into midweek with
Atlantic high beginning to dominate with a a more typical S-SW
return flow for this time of year. Overall, expect enhanced
convective activity on Mon, especially along and just off the
coast. By Tues, expect more localized and more limited
convection, although pcp water values will change by about a
quarter of an inch from Mon to Tues. Highs Monday will be below
normal once again, in the lower 80s, but by Tues most places
will reach into the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A more typical summertime pattern will exist midweek in return
flow around High off to the east. Mid to upper ridge extending
up from the south Wed will get suppressed farther south and
west Thurs as shortwave energy rides over the top across the
Carolinas in a W to NW flow. A cold front should reach as far
south as VA and perhaps into NC on Thurs with pooling of
moisture ahead of it. The W-NW steering flow should push storms
toward the coast. May see drier high pressure extending south
into the area by next weekend. Overall, not a clear cut forecast
but generally a more normal summertime pattern setting up. With
that, will come warmer temps reaching back up above normal with
mainly afternoon convection. Temps should be back up toward 90
or above mid to late week with heat index values topping 100 in
many spots, but as of now, should fall short of any Heat
Advisory thresholds.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Coastal trough off the SC coast will slowly move westward today into
tonight, leading to scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and
cloudy skies. Outside of coastal NE SC (including GGE and MYR), most
of the area is currently VFR. Expect this to change by dawn, with
lower (MVFR) ceilings spreading across the area. Confidence is
lowest for inland SE NC terminals (including LBT) and highest for
coastal NE SC (MYR and CRE) for development of MVFR conditions, with
ceilings likely to persist for most of today. Scattered showers
currently moving onshore will impact coastal terminals through
morning, with coverage expanding inland towards this afternoon. Will
see periodic low visibility restrictions in heavy rainfall given
high PWAT environment. Light showers will linger into tonight, with
sub-VFR conditions forecasted through end of TAF period. Winds
predominantly out of the east around 10 kts today.


Extended Outlook...Restrictions to flight categories are
expected to continue into Monday due to either spotty afternoon
convection or low ceilings each nighttime/morning periods. More
of the same is possible into early next week with a return to
more typical summer weather into midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Coastal trough currently near the SC coastline
will slowly drift westward today into tonight, veering 10-15 kt ENE
winds today to SE tonight. Scattered showers with isolated thunder
is forecasted across the local coastal waters today and tonight. A
few storms earlier this morning had some rotation on radar and may
have produced waterspouts. Threat for waterspouts will linger
through morning, with lower risk into the afternoon. Seas 3-4 ft
through tonight, with a SE wind wave joining the persistent ENE
swell tonight.

Monday through Thursday...Onshore, E to SE flow on Mon should
come around to a more normal S to SW flow Tues onward, remaining
around 5 to 10 kts with some gusts up to 15 kts. Initially seas
will be closer to 2 to 3 ft but will drop slightly to 1 to 2 ft
through midweek.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...Flood Watch through late tonight for SCZ055-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RGZ/VAO